Bread prices will rise worldwide if war breaks out in Ukraine, Europe’s breadbasket.
They account for around 30% of global maize production, with their vast fields and ordinary trade potentially disrupted.
Secretly negotiated sanctions would come into effect. It is unclear exactly what they would be, but it is believed that Russian banks will be banned.
This may lead to a sell off of Russian stocks, especially their banks, but it may spread to all Russian stocks as foreign investors flee.
As countries around the world ask their citizens to leave Ukraine, the stakes have now risen with rumors that kicking Russia out of Swift is now back on the table according to the French.
This is after Emmanuel Macron, the French President, held a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin which clearly did not go well if the previously ruled out Swift sanction is being considered again.
It can be personalized in its scope, with Russia essentially cut off except for debt payments to European banks, which could exclude them from global trade.
In 2018, Russia announced plans to create its own Swift with blockchain technology, but Putin has been busy for two decades kicking out coders like Pavel Durov.
It is therefore doubtful that they have the necessary crypto skills to realistically undertake such an endeavor at a satisfactory level beyond buying and holding bitcoins or mining crypto.
Similarly, China was a little too quick to phase out cryptos to gain national crypto proficiency, with their eCNY not even having a blockchain.
A Russian Swift would therefore likely be lower than normal, which would probably take a while to replace, but Russia can probably still trade because it has accumulated gold and it can still accumulate bitcoin – although its central bank don’t like crypto. Such an exchange, however, would obviously be much more limited than with Swift.
Oil could soar like it did briefly in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea, but then it could crash when Saudi Arabia floods the market.
Venezuela ended up paying for this invasion of Crimea as it descended into hyperinflation after oil prices crashed in 2014. Who would pay for an invasion of Ukraine this time is unclear.
Gas could also slump as Arabs flood the market, with the United States and Qatar recently holding talks as the small, resource-rich nation shows its spirit.
One would think that bonds would be prohibited, the question being whether they are only government bonds or corporate bonds.
Russia’s debt to gdp is only 20% but that’s still a lot of money that could get more expensive with the ruble possibly collapsing past 100 to the dollar and more , exacerbating already high inflation at 8.7%.
You would think bitcoin would go up, because unlike Putin’s speculated $100 million yacht that recently left Germany for Kaliningrad, you can easily secure bitcoin.
How much that would increase is anyone’s guess, as Russia’s GDP is less than $1.5 trillion, while Ukraine’s GDP is as large as Greece’s at around $200 billion.
But some in Russia have more money than others, some of which is probably parked in crypto, which would be a decent asset in such circumstances.
Global trade is unlikely to be affected, although tensions in the Black Sea could potentially turn into tensions in the Bosphorus.
According to unsubstantiated reports, two-way vessel traffic in the Bosphorus was temporarily suspended earlier in the day due to the breakdown of the Liberian-flagged dry cargo ship Cheng May.
Three Russian warships crossed the Bosphorus earlier this week, and three more are on their way.
While in Kyiv, documents are burned at the US Embassy during their evacuation, according to Bild.
Monday can therefore be a bit volatile for the markets, but we won’t get a good idea of that until Tuesday, when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets Putin.
He is the last, as far as is known, to visit Moscow at this stage. The Americans say they have information, or maybe it’s misinformation from the Russians, that they will go the next day, this Wednesday.
A rally was held in Ukraine (featured image in photo) to show a united front with the Russians in 2014 staging protests against the war in Ukraine, but they are told there will be no invasion though that they are worried in Moscow about the economic consequences most being against a war in Ukraine.
If there is an invasion, the Americans say there will be aerial bombardment with Boris Johnson, the British Prime Minister, previously calling it a blitzkrieg.
Ukraine’s military will fight, its defense minister says, as the world watches and wonders how we failed never to succeed again.